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Phenological Changes in the Southern Hemisphere

Identifieur interne : 004554 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 004553; suivant : 004555

Phenological Changes in the Southern Hemisphere

Auteurs : Lynda E. Chambers [Australie] ; Res Altwegg [Afrique du Sud] ; Christophe Barbraud [France] ; Phoebe Barnard [Afrique du Sud] ; Linda J. Beaumont [Australie] ; Robert J. M. Crawford [Afrique du Sud] ; Joel M. Durant [Norvège] ; Lesley Hughes [Australie] ; Marie R. Keatley [Australie] ; Matt Low [Suède] ; Patricia C. Morellato [Brésil] ; Elvira S. Poloczanska [Australie] ; Valeria Ruoppolo [États-Unis, Brésil] ; Ralph E. T. Vanstreels [Brésil] ; Eric J. Woehler [Australie] ; Anton C. Wolfaardt

Source :

RBID : PMC:3787957

Abstract

Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported.


Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0075514
PubMed: 24098389
PubMed Central: 3787957


Affiliations:


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Le document en format XML

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<addr-line>Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia</addr-line>
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<name sortKey="Morellato, Patricia C" sort="Morellato, Patricia C" uniqKey="Morellato P" first="Patricia C." last="Morellato">Patricia C. Morellato</name>
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<name sortKey="Poloczanska, Elvira S" sort="Poloczanska, Elvira S" uniqKey="Poloczanska E" first="Elvira S." last="Poloczanska">Elvira S. Poloczanska</name>
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<addr-line>International Fund for Animal Welfare, Yarmouth Port, Massachusetts, United States of America</addr-line>
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<affiliation wicri:level="4">
<nlm:aff id="aff12">
<addr-line>Laboratory of Wildlife Comparative Pathology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Brésil</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Laboratory of Wildlife Comparative Pathology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">São Paulo</settlement>
<region type="state">État de São Paulo</region>
<settlement type="city">São Paulo</settlement>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université de São Paulo</orgName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Vanstreels, Ralph E T" sort="Vanstreels, Ralph E T" uniqKey="Vanstreels R" first="Ralph E. T." last="Vanstreels">Ralph E. T. Vanstreels</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4">
<nlm:aff id="aff12">
<addr-line>Laboratory of Wildlife Comparative Pathology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Brésil</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Laboratory of Wildlife Comparative Pathology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">São Paulo</settlement>
<region type="state">État de São Paulo</region>
<settlement type="city">São Paulo</settlement>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université de São Paulo</orgName>
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</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Woehler, Eric J" sort="Woehler, Eric J" uniqKey="Woehler E" first="Eric J." last="Woehler">Eric J. Woehler</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff13">
<addr-line>Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, Tasmania, Australia</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, Tasmania</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Tasmania</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Wolfaardt, Anton C" sort="Wolfaardt, Anton C" uniqKey="Wolfaardt A" first="Anton C." last="Wolfaardt">Anton C. Wolfaardt</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff14">
<addr-line>Joint Nature Conservation Committee of the UK, Stanley, Falkland Islands</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Falkland Islands</wicri:noCountry>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series>
<title level="j">PLoS ONE</title>
<idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno>
<imprint>
<date when="2013">2013</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc>
<textClass></textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict
<italic>a priori</italic>
. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported.</p>
</div>
</front>
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<name sortKey="Crick, Hqp" uniqKey="Crick H">HQP Crick</name>
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<name sortKey="Croxton, Pj" uniqKey="Croxton P">PJ Croxton</name>
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<name sortKey="Kobori, H" uniqKey="Kobori H">H Kobori</name>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Kamamoto, T" uniqKey="Kamamoto T">T Kamamoto</name>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Nomura, H" uniqKey="Nomura H">H Nomura</name>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Oka, K" uniqKey="Oka K">K Oka</name>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Primack, R" uniqKey="Primack R">R Primack</name>
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<name sortKey="Gordienko, N" uniqKey="Gordienko N">N Gordienko</name>
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<li>Afrique du Sud</li>
<li>Australie</li>
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<li>Norvège</li>
<li>Suède</li>
<li>États-Unis</li>
</country>
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<li>Massachusetts</li>
<li>Victoria (État)</li>
<li>État de São Paulo</li>
<li>Østlandet</li>
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<li>Oslo</li>
<li>São Paulo</li>
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<name sortKey="Keatley, Marie R" sort="Keatley, Marie R" uniqKey="Keatley M" first="Marie R." last="Keatley">Marie R. Keatley</name>
<name sortKey="Poloczanska, Elvira S" sort="Poloczanska, Elvira S" uniqKey="Poloczanska E" first="Elvira S." last="Poloczanska">Elvira S. Poloczanska</name>
<name sortKey="Woehler, Eric J" sort="Woehler, Eric J" uniqKey="Woehler E" first="Eric J." last="Woehler">Eric J. Woehler</name>
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<name sortKey="Altwegg, Res" sort="Altwegg, Res" uniqKey="Altwegg R" first="Res" last="Altwegg">Res Altwegg</name>
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<name sortKey="Barnard, Phoebe" sort="Barnard, Phoebe" uniqKey="Barnard P" first="Phoebe" last="Barnard">Phoebe Barnard</name>
<name sortKey="Barnard, Phoebe" sort="Barnard, Phoebe" uniqKey="Barnard P" first="Phoebe" last="Barnard">Phoebe Barnard</name>
<name sortKey="Crawford, Robert J M" sort="Crawford, Robert J M" uniqKey="Crawford R" first="Robert J. M." last="Crawford">Robert J. M. Crawford</name>
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<country name="France">
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<name sortKey="Barbraud, Christophe" sort="Barbraud, Christophe" uniqKey="Barbraud C" first="Christophe" last="Barbraud">Christophe Barbraud</name>
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<region name="Østlandet">
<name sortKey="Durant, Joel M" sort="Durant, Joel M" uniqKey="Durant J" first="Joel M." last="Durant">Joel M. Durant</name>
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<country name="Suède">
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<name sortKey="Low, Matt" sort="Low, Matt" uniqKey="Low M" first="Matt" last="Low">Matt Low</name>
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</country>
<country name="Brésil">
<region name="État de São Paulo">
<name sortKey="Morellato, Patricia C" sort="Morellato, Patricia C" uniqKey="Morellato P" first="Patricia C." last="Morellato">Patricia C. Morellato</name>
</region>
<name sortKey="Ruoppolo, Valeria" sort="Ruoppolo, Valeria" uniqKey="Ruoppolo V" first="Valeria" last="Ruoppolo">Valeria Ruoppolo</name>
<name sortKey="Vanstreels, Ralph E T" sort="Vanstreels, Ralph E T" uniqKey="Vanstreels R" first="Ralph E. T." last="Vanstreels">Ralph E. T. Vanstreels</name>
</country>
<country name="États-Unis">
<region name="Massachusetts">
<name sortKey="Ruoppolo, Valeria" sort="Ruoppolo, Valeria" uniqKey="Ruoppolo V" first="Valeria" last="Ruoppolo">Valeria Ruoppolo</name>
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</affiliations>
</record>

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